Posts

canadian real estate trends 2020

Cost Comparison and Trends in Canadian Real Estate

2020 has been a year of highs and lows for the Canadian Real Estate Market

Fitting with the times we’re in, the CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) couldn’t even publish a quarterly trend forecast in June. Instead, a notice on the webpage stated that “as providers of the most accurate and timely housing data and statistics, CREA believes the outlook to still be too uncertain to release a forecast at this time.”

However, there are still monthly forecasts. As of August 2020, the CREA’s monthly stats and forecast was quite positive, showing home prices and sales increasing across Canada (on average).

Canada’s Real Estate Market is Still Hot

July 2020 was a record-breaking month for many markets, which otherwise floundered during April and May. In fact, according to the CREA monthly stats report, home sales rebounded by 26% in July 2020. Transactions increased country-wide on a month over month basis.

At this point, supply has exceeded demand in many markets, creating a competitive and busy market as we close out summer 2020. Major markets like London-St Thomas, Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver have seen large jumps in average home prices in the past year.

Sales Increases in the 11 Largest Markets

  • 49.5% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
  • 43.9% in Greater Vancouver
  • 39.1% in Montreal
  • 36.6% in the Fraser Valley
  • 31.8% in Hamilton-Burlington
  • 28.7% in Ottawa
  • 16.9% in London and St. Thomas
  • 15.7% in Calgary
  • 12.1% in Winnipeg
  • 9.7% in Edmonton
  • 5.4% in Quebec City

Housing Prices Across Canada

Note that this statistical information includes all housing types. This average price information is used for determining trends over time and doesn’t account for price ranges between dramatically different neighbourhoods or geographic areas.

  • Home prices have been rising nearly constantly for the past 17 years and between 2016 and 2019, pricing rose by 27.8% (18.5% adjusted for inflation).
  • Across Canada, the average home price rose to $571,471 in July 2020, compared to $500,164 in July 2019. B.C and Ontario are currently the most expensive markets, with average pricing of $699,300 and $606,400.
  • During 2019, Ottawa’s home prices rose the most at 7.38% (on average). Next was Halifax at 7.35%, Montreal at 6.37% and Toronto at 4.48%
  • There were also smaller increases in Quebec at 1.49%, Victoria at 1.13% and Winnipeg at 1.02%
  • Pricing fell in Vancouver at -4.05% and in two of Alberta’s major markets: Edmonton at -1.49% and Calgary at -0.94%

Average Housing Prices in Major Canadian Cities

East of Saskatchewan, most markets have seen strong sales and increasing prices. While prices have also risen in B.C. and Alberta, they haven’t been as distinctive. According to the CREA’s monthly statistical report, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2020 was $571,500, up a record-setting 14.3% from July 2019.

This number is influenced by the increases in Canada’s two hottest and most expensive markets- Greater Toronto (GTA) and Greater Vancouver. Without the increases in these markets, the national average home price would be around $117,000 less.

View CREA’s National Price Map

Greater Vancouver

Average Price- $1,031,400 in July 2020 compared to $987,200 in July 2019

Fraser Valley

Average Price- $858,300 in July 2020 compared to $824,500 in July 2019

Victoria

Average Price- $724,600 in July 2020 compared to $700,300 in July 2019

Edmonton

Average Price- $319,000 in July 2020 compared to $323,800 in July 2019

Calgary

Average Price- $411,200 in July 2020 compared to $417,200 in July 2019

Regina

Average Price- $272,200 in July 2020 compared to $269,000 in July 2019

Saskatoon

Average Price- $296,900 in July 2020 compared to $291,300 in July 2019

Winnipeg

Average Price- $284,000 in July 2020 compared to $270,500 in July 2019

Hamilton-Burlington

Average Price- $687,000 in July 2020 compared to $608,600 in July 2019

London-St Thomas

Average Price- $485,802 in July 2020 compared to $406,125 in July 2019

Montreal

Average Price- $401,300 in July 2020 compared to $351,700 in July 2019

Greater Toronto

Average Price- $880,400 in July 2020 compared to $800,200 in July 2019

Ottawa

Average Price- $506,700 in July 2020 compared to $428,100 in July 2019

Quebec City

Average Price- $258,000 in July 2020 compared to $244,800 in July 2019

Halifax- Dartmouth

Average Price- $363,692 in July 2020 compared to $310,251 in July 2019

St John

Average Price- $202,297 in July 2020 compared to $185,632 in July 2019

The Price Gap Between Condos and Single-Family Homes is Shrinking

The mortgage stress test is potentially making it tougher for home buyers to get into single family and more expensive types of homes (particularly in major cities). First time buyers in major markets may opt to purchase a condo over a single-family home. Condo prices are rising due to increased demand (4.2% year over year) and single-family home prices remain relatively similar – the gap between condo pricing and single-family home pricing is narrowing.

Single Family Homes Under Development

In 2018, there were 46,747 units under construction, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This was down from 55,000 units in 2017. As people move further away from the larger cities (Toronto and Vancouver) there are more opportunities for development and more affordable housing prices.  Within pricier markets, home buyers may often look for properties with rental income potential to offset the cost of the mortgage.

Multi-Family Homes Under Development

Condos are the leader for new home construction. In 2018, inventory still under construction reached almost 121,000 units (54% of new builds). Condos also eclipsed single family and rental homes (apartments) at 46,747 units and 56,394 units, respectively. Condos purchased by investors also supplement and supply the rental market. Thinking about getting into the market this fall? Whether you’re considering buying or selling or just want to know what your home is truly worth, our team offers accurate, comprehensive and professional residential real estate appraisal services. D. Fritz Appraisals serves clients from South to Central Vancouver Island (Victoria to Nanaimo) as well as the Gulf Islands. For any questions or to order an appraisal, contact us today.

real estate market trends 2020

Current Real Estate Industry Trends

COVID-19 Halts the Vancouver Island Real Estate Marketplace

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, no aspect of the Canadian economy was left untouched and the real estate market felt this acutely with a major slump during March and April. During this period, many British Columbians experienced layoffs, placed themselves in social isolation and were hesitant to open their homes to strangers. For many, listing their homes or searching for a new home took a backseat to navigating the “new normal” during this very odd time in history when schools, workplaces, and all public spaces shut down, seemingly overnight. Also, as restrictions on rental properties were put into place to protect tenants from eviction during the lockdown period, owners of these properties were unable to list these homes. With realtors also self-isolating and avoiding in-person meetings, the market in the Victoria Real Estate (VREB) region was uncharacteristically quiet during what would normally be peak season. Live-streamed open houses, virtual walkthroughs, masks and sanitizer waiting at listed homes became common as the first weeks wore on.

The Vancouver Island Real Estate Market Bounces Back

The market experienced a stronger than expected bounce-back in late May and June, closely timed with the start of Phase 2 of the BC Restart Plan. As a result, in June the number of homes on the market was much closer to 2019 numbers and sales in June 2020 in the VREB region surpassed sales from June 2019. Despite a slow spring, home prices continued to rise. The sale price of an average single-family home in Victoria topped $1 million in June. Competitive/ multiple offers have also become common due to limited inventory. The BCREA, VREB, and VIREB, Real Estate professionals and other industry experts report this is likely due to a pent-up demand from buyers and sellers having to wait throughout the spring (normally the ideal time to buy and sell) to make their move.

real estate market trends 2020

Changes by the Canadian Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) may also have played a role in demand with new changes resulting in reduced borrowing power. The eligibility rules for a mortgage have now changed to include an inability to use borrowed funds for a down payment, requirements for a higher credit score, and a lower amount of debt that an applicant is allowed carry. Some buyers, particularly first-time buyers, may have felt a push to purchase a home before those changes came into effect July 1. “COVID-19 has exposed long-standing vulnerabilities in our financial markets, and we must act now to protect the economic futures of Canadians,” says Evan Siddall, CMHC’s President and CEO, of the changed eligibility rules for borrowers requiring mortgage insurance.

Changes in Pricing Could Lead to New Opportunities

Rising home prices are believed to be a result of limited inventory and more competitive/multiple offers seen through May and June as the market began to recover. Despite this initial rise, lower valuations may come into play as the COVID-19 pandemic continues, and as we experience a potential second wave.

The Vancouver Island Market Moving Forward

The Real Estate market on Vancouver Island is a mixed bag and it remains to be seen how it will fare long-term, particularly after Canadian Emergency Response Benefit (CERB) and other government assistance programs wind down during the next few months. The CERB benefit, for example, is available from March 15 to October 3, 2020 but can be applied for retroactively up until December 2, 2020. These programs have temporarily taken the pressure off to pay the mortgages and bills and even defer taxes Industry professionals believe it’s possible there may be a surge in sales as these programs phase out, forcing homeowners to list their properties.

A bit of good news: in the most recent market intelligence report by the British Columbia Real Estate Association (BCCREA), it is “anticipated that while the economic impact of the COVID-19 outbreak will be deeply felt, the bounce-back will be faster than in previous recessions. As the protection measures are lifted, as we have already seen in parts of the Province, the pent-up demand will return to local markets with buyers keen to take advantage of low interest rates.” The long-term effects remain to be seen, but on the positive side, a combination of lower interest rates, increased inventory and a drop in valuation have the potential to create an ideal buyer’s market and faster sales.

 

The Numbers:

  • In April 2020, sales in the VREB dropped by 58.8 percent compared to April 2019
  • Condo sales are down 3.2% with 209 units sold in June 2020- believed to be at least partly a result of rising Strata insurance costs.
  • Single family home sales are up 16.8% with 460 homes sold in June 2020
  • Sales in the VREB region were up in June at 808 properties sold, compared to 740 properties sold in June 2019
  • There are currently 2,698 active listings on the VREB Multiple Listing Service (MLS) as of the end of June 2020

Full VREB Stats

 

As one of Victoria’s longest-standing appraisal firms, rely on our years of expertise if you are considering buying, selling, or re-financing. At D. Fritz Appraisals Inc. located in Victoria BC, our expert team understands that these are uncertain times and its of utmost importance to have the most accurate and comprehensive valuations possible. To get the full picture of the value of your property, contact us today.