According to Industry Experts, Housing Prices May Fall in 2022
There Were Major Price Increases in Single-Family Housing and Multi-Family Housing in 2021
Housing prices have seen a huge increase over the last few years, with a particularly large leap this year. The median home prices in Greater Victoria surpassed a million dollars, at $1.2 million. Elsewhere on Vancouver Island, home prices also rose sharply. This rise has caused rental rates to spike, increased demand for housing and has made it very difficult, if not impossible, for first-time buyers to get their foot in the door of home sweet home.
The Housing Bubble May Already Be Shrinking
Thankfully, according to numerous reports from financial analysts, this overinflated housing bubble has begun to shrink in metro areas and will continue to shrink in 2022. Quelling fears that the bubble will burst, causing economic disaster, reports are showing only a slight decrease, with home prices being predicted to rise an average of only 3.7%, down from the original prediction of 4.0%. Still, any reduction is great news!
Why Are Real Estate Prices Forecast to Decrease?
Factoring into this decrease is a rise in mortgage interest rates. 2020 and 2021’s low interest rates have driven high amounts of investor activity, causing homes to be bought up in just moments after listing, or even before hitting the market. In an article by the Vancouver Island Free Daily, pent-up demand and extremely low inventory have also been driving factors for the rapid-fire sales.
“Fiscal stimulus, accelerating inflation and lessening support from the Bank of Canada all signal higher interest rates in the year ahead. Rising borrowing costs may also cool down housing market activity,” said Brendan LaCerda, senior economist at Moody’s Analytics. Part of rising borrowing costs is an increase in the Mortgage Stress Test, which has increased uninsured mortgage rates to 5.25%
Buyers who could snag a $900K home at a low interest rate will have a much tougher time qualifying for, and paying for, a $900K home at a higher, more standard interest rate. The positive changes to the CMHC’s First-Time Homebuyer’s Incentive certainly might help as well.
What Caused the Housing Buying Boom in the First Place?
Some industry experts believe a lot of the market demand this year could have been due to fear of missing out (FOMO), particularly for investors. It’s a classic case of supply vs. demand. It’s just like when you’re in a store and you see one item that you’re particularly drawn to and it appears to be the last one. It’s more appealing because it seems to be rare. You buy it, and as you walk out of the store, you see an identical item on the display. Suddenly, your one-of-a-kind item doesn’t have the same shine to it!
For home buyers, it’s roughly the same experience. The market scarcity is driving buyers to purchase pretty much whatever they can get, even if it’s well above asking. These buyers tend to believe that these prices are the new normal and this is their chance. Between record-high sales and record-setting low inventory, there’s a worry that buyers might be taking on more than they can afford, due to the low interest rates, according to Susan Perrey, a realtor and Zone 3 Director for the Vancouver Island Real Estate Board (VIREB.)
It hasn’t just been existing homes either, plots of land and new developments have been selling just as fast as the listing goes live. Now, according to the BC Real Estate Association (BCREA) levels of home sales will come back down to 2016 levels, the former peak level for home sales across BC.
According to an article by Western Investor, Brendan Ogmundson, BCREA’s chief economist said “we are coming off a record-smashing pace” where sales could reach 130,000 units or more this year following 94,013 sales in 2020, compared to the regular levels of about 80,000 transactions each year.
10 of 14 analysts said an interest rate hike would significantly tame the Canadian Real Estate market and housing demand. This supports all this speculation that a soft landing is expected for the market province-wide, with a slower pace in buying and selling and more balanced home prices.
In the latest real estate news, in an interview with BNN Bloomberg, Pedro Antunes, Chief Economist with the Conference Board of Canada, says that we can now “expect a 10% decline in average home prices over the remainder of 2021 and into 2022.” This is great news, since a smaller decline in prices will help protect the market from a catastrophic crash – like the housing market crash in the US back in 2008 that sent shockwaves through the entire financial sector across the country, into Canada and around the world.
In all the reports for the future of Canada’s real estate market, the overarching message is that of hope. As long as the increase in interest rates and decrease in home prices are incremental, experts are hopeful that real estate markets on Vancouver Island and across the country will balance out.
Considering an Appraisal for Your Home?
If you’re considering selling or refinancing your home in the near future, it’s still very much a seller’s market. Wondering how much your home is worth? At D. Fritz Appraisals Inc., our team has over 40 years of experience and we’ve been the go-to appraiser during all sorts of market conditions. We can appraise your home for the most accurate valuation according to the market today. Our appraisers are certified, professionally insured and dedicated to providing the most precise property valuations possible. To help boost your home’s appraised value, take a look at our post on 8 ways to increase the value of your home, gather as much information as you can with our handy pre-appraisal checklist and then give us a call to book your home appraisal.