2020 has been a year of highs and lows for the Canadian Real Estate Market
Fitting with the times we’re in, the CREA (Canadian Real Estate Association) couldn’t even publish a quarterly trend forecast in June. Instead, a notice on the webpage stated that “as providers of the most accurate and timely housing data and statistics, CREA believes the outlook to still be too uncertain to release a forecast at this time.”
However, there are still monthly forecasts. As of August 2020, the CREA’s monthly stats and forecast was quite positive, showing home prices and sales increasing across Canada (on average).
Canada’s Real Estate Market is Still Hot
July 2020 was a record-breaking month for many markets, which otherwise floundered during April and May. In fact, according to the CREA monthly stats report, home sales rebounded by 26% in July 2020. Transactions increased country-wide on a month over month basis.
At this point, supply has exceeded demand in many markets, creating a competitive and busy market as we close out summer 2020. Major markets like London-St Thomas, Montreal, Ottawa and Vancouver have seen large jumps in average home prices in the past year.
Sales Increases in the 11 Largest Markets
- 49.5% in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
- 43.9% in Greater Vancouver
- 39.1% in Montreal
- 36.6% in the Fraser Valley
- 31.8% in Hamilton-Burlington
- 28.7% in Ottawa
- 16.9% in London and St. Thomas
- 15.7% in Calgary
- 12.1% in Winnipeg
- 9.7% in Edmonton
- 5.4% in Quebec City
Housing Prices Across Canada
Note that this statistical information includes all housing types. This average price information is used for determining trends over time and doesn’t account for price ranges between dramatically different neighbourhoods or geographic areas.
- Home prices have been rising nearly constantly for the past 17 years and between 2016 and 2019, pricing rose by 27.8% (18.5% adjusted for inflation).
- Across Canada, the average home price rose to $571,471 in July 2020, compared to $500,164 in July 2019. B.C and Ontario are currently the most expensive markets, with average pricing of $699,300 and $606,400.
- During 2019, Ottawa’s home prices rose the most at 7.38% (on average). Next was Halifax at 7.35%, Montreal at 6.37% and Toronto at 4.48%
- There were also smaller increases in Quebec at 1.49%, Victoria at 1.13% and Winnipeg at 1.02%
- Pricing fell in Vancouver at -4.05% and in two of Alberta’s major markets: Edmonton at -1.49% and Calgary at -0.94%
Average Housing Prices in Major Canadian Cities
East of Saskatchewan, most markets have seen strong sales and increasing prices. While prices have also risen in B.C. and Alberta, they haven’t been as distinctive. According to the CREA’s monthly statistical report, the actual (not seasonally adjusted) national average price for homes sold in July 2020 was $571,500, up a record-setting 14.3% from July 2019.
This number is influenced by the increases in Canada’s two hottest and most expensive markets- Greater Toronto (GTA) and Greater Vancouver. Without the increases in these markets, the national average home price would be around $117,000 less.
Average Price- $1,031,400 in July 2020 compared to $987,200 in July 2019
Average Price- $858,300 in July 2020 compared to $824,500 in July 2019
Average Price- $724,600 in July 2020 compared to $700,300 in July 2019
Average Price- $319,000 in July 2020 compared to $323,800 in July 2019
Average Price- $411,200 in July 2020 compared to $417,200 in July 2019
Average Price- $272,200 in July 2020 compared to $269,000 in July 2019
Average Price- $296,900 in July 2020 compared to $291,300 in July 2019
Average Price- $284,000 in July 2020 compared to $270,500 in July 2019
Average Price- $687,000 in July 2020 compared to $608,600 in July 2019
Average Price- $485,802 in July 2020 compared to $406,125 in July 2019
Average Price- $401,300 in July 2020 compared to $351,700 in July 2019
Average Price- $880,400 in July 2020 compared to $800,200 in July 2019
Average Price- $506,700 in July 2020 compared to $428,100 in July 2019
Average Price- $258,000 in July 2020 compared to $244,800 in July 2019
Average Price- $363,692 in July 2020 compared to $310,251 in July 2019
Average Price- $202,297 in July 2020 compared to $185,632 in July 2019
The Price Gap Between Condos and Single-Family Homes is Shrinking
The mortgage stress test is potentially making it tougher for home buyers to get into single family and more expensive types of homes (particularly in major cities). First time buyers in major markets may opt to purchase a condo over a single-family home. Condo prices are rising due to increased demand (4.2% year over year) and single-family home prices remain relatively similar – the gap between condo pricing and single-family home pricing is narrowing.
Single Family Homes Under Development
In 2018, there were 46,747 units under construction, according to the Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC). This was down from 55,000 units in 2017. As people move further away from the larger cities (Toronto and Vancouver) there are more opportunities for development and more affordable housing prices. Within pricier markets, home buyers may often look for properties with rental income potential to offset the cost of the mortgage.
Multi-Family Homes Under Development
Condos are the leader for new home construction. In 2018, inventory still under construction reached almost 121,000 units (54% of new builds). Condos also eclipsed single family and rental homes (apartments) at 46,747 units and 56,394 units, respectively. Condos purchased by investors also supplement and supply the rental market. Thinking about getting into the market this fall? Whether you’re considering buying or selling or just want to know what your home is truly worth, our team offers accurate, comprehensive and professional residential real estate appraisal services. D. Fritz Appraisals serves clients from South to Central Vancouver Island (Victoria to Nanaimo) as well as the Gulf Islands. For any questions or to order an appraisal, contact us today.